About the Blog
In the run up to the Scottish Parliament elections in 2016, there are likely to be a lot of polls (and a lot of speculation and misinformation) flying around, which need somehow to be translated into meaningful data and predictions. Since I’m a bit of an elections nerd, I figured I’d keep a regular tracker of my own predictions.
Predictions on this blog are based on my own calculator, which fills a gap in the usual go-to predictor (Scotland Votes) – it provides a breakdown of how the list seats are assigned on a region-by-region basis rather than just giving the overall total, as well as which candidates would go on to become MSPs.
It’s important to understand that predictions are exactly that. They are not guarantees. No predictor can be perfect, as all are based on mathematical models that extrapolate national vote figures into individual constituencies and regions. An explanation of how mine works can be found in my introductory post.
I usually blog at Greener Faulds, but figured it made sense to keep what are likely to be regular posts on polling and predictions separate from my other stuff.
About the Author
I’m an engineer and Scottish Green Party member based in Glasgow. I have a strong interest in electoral systems and polling, and will be standing for the Partick West ward in the 2017 local elections.